According to CCTV News, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again on local time April 8.
Data from maritime traffic tracking systems shows that the oil tanker AUROURA, which was originally heading toward the Strait of Hormuz exit, suddenly changed course near the coast of Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, completed a 180-degree turn, and returned deep into the Persian Gulf.
According to earlier reports, Iran suspended oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.
Data shows: Yesterday, total vessel traffic in the Persian Gulf stood at 8 voyages, including 2 container ships, 0 crude oil tankers, 1 product oil tanker, 0 LNG carriers, 0 LPG carriers, and 5 other vessels; 3 inbound voyages and 5 outbound voyages. This represents a month-on-month decrease of 33.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 92.92%.
Iran Says Three Items of Its "Ten-Point Plan" Violated, "Basis for Negotiations" Destroyed
According to CCTV News, on local time April 8, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, issued a statement on his personal social media, noting that three key clauses in Iran’s 10-point ceasefire terms had been violated before negotiations between Iran and the United States even began.
Ghalibaf stated that Iran’s deep historical distrust of the United States stems from its repeated breach of various commitments—regrettably, this pattern has repeated itself. Iran’s 10-point proposal was recognized by U.S. President Donald Trump as a "negotiable basis" and the main framework for bilateral talks. However, three clauses of the proposal have been violated to date: "ceasefire in Lebanon," "no further violations of Iranian airspace," and "recognition of Iran’s right to uranium enrichment." This negotiating framework has been openly violated before Iran-U.S. talks even started. Under such circumstances, a ceasefire or negotiations between the two sides would be meaningless.
Netanyahu Says Israel "Ready to Return to Battle at Any Time"
According to CCTV News, on the evening of local time April 8, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement.
Netanyahu declared that Israel "has more goals to achieve." He stated, "We will achieve these goals, whether through an agreement or by resuming the war," adding that Israel is "ready to return to battle at any time."
Netanyahu also claimed that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was reached "in full coordination with Israel."
He emphasized that the current ceasefire "is not the end of the entire war, but a phase in achieving all of Israel’s goals in this conflict." He further noted that the ceasefire agreement "does not apply" to military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
White House: First U.S.-Iran Talks to Be Held April 11
According to CCTV News, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a regular press briefing on local time April 8 that the United States and Iran will hold their first round of talks on the morning of local time April 11 in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President J.D. Vance, Presidential Envoy Witkoff, and the President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Leavitt also stated that Iran’s original 10-point proposal is "unacceptable and has been discarded." A "more reasonable and concise" proposal subsequently put forward by Iran could serve as the basis for U.S.-Iran negotiations. She added that U.S. President Trump’s "red line" demanding Iran halt uranium enrichment activities remains unchanged.
Large-Scale Israeli Strikes Kill 112, Injure 837 in Lebanon
According to CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on the afternoon of April 8 that the Israeli Air Force had just completed one of its largest airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon since the start of the current conflict, targeting 100 sites within 10 minutes.
The Emergency Operations Center of Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health announced on the evening of local time April 8 that Israel’s attacks across Lebanon, including the capital Beirut, had killed 112 people and injured 837.
Iran’s IRGC Vows to Retaliate Against Israel
According to CCTV News, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran issued a statement on local time April 8, warning that if Israel does not immediately halt its attacks on Lebanon, the IRGC "will deliver a regretful response to aggressors in the region."
Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, also stated that attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon is equivalent to attacking Iran, and the IRGC is preparing "a crushing response to the brutal crimes of the aggressors."
U.S. Dollar Index Plunges, European and U.S. Stock Markets Surge
On the evening of April 8, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 1.04% to 98.63, marking its largest single-day drop since January 27 and erasing all gains for the year. International oil prices extended losses, with the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract plunging more than 18% and the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract falling over 16%. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened sharply higher: the Nasdaq rose 3.65%, the S&P 500 gained 2.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.61%.
For some time, market discussions have swirled about the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and easing tensions. However, actual vessel traffic data shows recovery is far slower than widely expected.
Public reports indicate that while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slightly improved from its most extreme levels recently, overall passage volumes remain drastically below pre-conflict normal levels. Some industry tracking data shows average daily traffic in recent days has remained in the single to low double digits, compared to around 125 vessels per day before the conflict. In other words, even with sporadic resumptions, overall traffic remains severely depressed.
This explains Clarksons’ cautious assessment. For shipping companies, charterers, cargo owners, and insurance institutions, what truly matters is not "whether any ships passed through," but whether the waterway has returned to a predictable, sustainable, and commercially operational state. At present, the answer is clearly no.
Ceasefire News Does Not Equal Immediate Capacity Return
On April 8, news of a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered violent volatility in oil prices and capital markets. Reuters reported that U.S. President Trump stated the U.S. would assist in resolving the shipping backlog in the Strait of Hormuz; the same report noted that a large number of vessels remain stranded in the area, and maritime recovery will not happen overnight.
On the same day, Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, also issued a highly cautious statement. He noted that even if the Middle East situation stabilizes, it will take at least 6 to 8 weeks for the company’s network to return to normal. This judgment is critical, as it reflects that liner companies define "normalization" not as a political "ceasefire" declaration, but as a full system restoration including route reconfiguration, vessel position recovery, cargo flow re-matching, and risk cost re-pricing.
In other words, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens nominally, the market will not return to its original order overnight.
What Happens After Reopening?
Current concerns among shipping companies go beyond "whether passage is allowed" to "whether passage is truly safe, controllable, and insurable."
Meanwhile, the UK, multiple European countries, and industry stakeholders have all emphasized in recent days that "restoring" the Strait of Hormuz still requires extensive work. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated publicly on April 8 that reopening the strait still "has a lot of work to do." This indicates that beyond political rhetoric, security escorts, passage rules, insurance underwriting, military coordination, and market confidence rebuilding are all still works in progress.
From a market logic perspective, shipowners will not immediately redeploy their fleets back into high-risk waters based solely on a ceasefire statement. Especially in the tanker and gas carrier sectors, the losses from a second sudden incident would far outweigh the opportunity costs of short-term waiting.
The Strait of Hormuz’s "Low-Flow Normalcy" Is Reshaping Market Sentiment
Clarksons’ latest assessment is noteworthy not only for its observation of current vessel traffic but also for conveying a deeper market signal: Even as the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers, it is unlikely to see a "quick fix" but will instead enter a new phase of low efficiency, low traffic, strict control, and high risk premiums.
What does this mean? First, high volatility in the tanker market is likely to persist. Previous Clarksons data showed that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by approximately 95% from pre-war levels, directly driving up global tanker spot earnings and exacerbating regional capacity mismatches.
Second, the pace of vessel return will lag significantly behind political news cycles. The market will prioritize "several consecutive weeks of stable passage" over "individual vessels successfully transiting."
Third, shipping companies will continue to adopt conservative route and fleet deployment strategies. Liner companies and tanker operators that previously suspended bookings in the Upper Gulf, rerouted away from the region, or frozen operations are unlikely to fully resume before risks are fully clarified.
The Real Inflection Point for the Shipping Market Has Not Arrived
Based on current statements and public data, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has indeed seen a degree of "technical easing," but it remains far from the "return to normalcy" recognized by the market.
Clarksons’ core message is clear: Do not hold high expectations for a rapid return of vessel traffic. Current passage volumes remain abnormally low, with no clear signs of accelerated recovery in the short term.
For the global shipping industry, the key monitoring indicators for the next phase are no longer political "ceasefire or not" but three practical questions:
1. Can continuous navigation be maintained?
2. Will insurance and risk pricing fall back?
3. Will major shipowners and liner companies resume normal deployments?
Until clear answers emerge to these three questions, the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain in a state of "limited passage, slow recovery, and weak confidence." This is the critical takeaway behind Clarksons’ assessment that the market should heed.